Car makers are facing the prospect of massive fines if they fail to meet tough new average emissions targets set in the EU.
Automakers failing to meet 2021 fleet CO2 emissions compliance, could be fined more than €14 billion in 2021, based on new analysis from business information provider IHS Markit.
Legislators in the European Union (EU) are imposing a new passenger car fleet CO2emissions target of 95 g/km, to be phased in during 2020, with 100% application in 2021 on Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP).
New passenger car fleets that fail to meet compliance are set for potentially substantial fines in both 2020 and 2021.
The IHS Markit baseline scenario (one of various scenarios), suggests that the EU28 sales-weighted passenger car phased (best 95 percent) fleetCO2 average in 2020 is likely to reach 102.3 g/km (NEDC). This includes 4 g/km of CO2reduction derived from super credits and a further 2 g/km of CO2 reduction from forecasted eco-innovation technology deployment. In 2020, fines paid by OEMs could amount to €11 billion.
Furthermore, with a 2021 target set at 114.9g/km (as the 95g/km New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) target is adjusted to an equivalent WLTP value), IHS Markit forecasts that the sales-weighted passenger car fleet CO2average will reach 122.9 g/km (WLTP). If this level of excess emission is unable to be curtailed, it could lead to a total of €14 billion in excess emission premiums.